New Delhi, Aug 20: India’s retail inflation may see a temporary rise in the coming months and could cross the 6 per cent mark in October and November before easing towards around 5 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY27, according to an SBI Research report.
The report expects retail inflation to rise to around 4.7 per cent in August. The projected increase is expected to be temporary, with inflation likely to moderate towards the end of the financial year.
India’s retail inflation rose to 4.45 per cent in July from 4.38 per cent in June, with food prices remaining a key source of pressure. Food inflation increased to 5.52 per cent in July, while core inflation remained relatively contained.
The expected rise in inflation could be influenced by food prices and other cost pressures. However, the SBI Research assessment suggests that the increase may not develop into a prolonged period of high inflation.
The report expects inflation to ease towards around 5 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY27. Historical trends also indicate that the eventual inflation reading in the final quarter could be lower than current projections.
The inflation outlook will remain important for households, businesses and policymakers. A temporary rise above 6 per cent could put some pressure on household budgets, while a subsequent moderation would provide relief and help keep broader price pressures under control.
Overall, the latest assessment points to a short-term inflation spike followed by gradual easing, rather than a sustained rise in India’s retail price pressures.